Gartner Preditcs The End of Blogging and Windows
Gartner usually does some pretty good stuff, but they are kind of like Sony to me, I get that look that can best be described as head tilted to the side, eyebrows closer together, fore head wrinkled, head slightly leaning forward, blinking rate decreases to zero and is then suddenly followed by a rapid succession, and then after a long silence the very profound statement of “Huh?” comes out. Remember their predictions about the Vista delay? How about companies making employees purchase their own laptops? And if we reach back a bit further to say 2002, we see that they are not even batting .500.
I know predicting the future of computing, or technology at all, is not an easy task things change in this industry ever day, but this is what you do.
I like Gartner, don’t get me wrong, I have read, and used, their cases studies on projects before and they carry considerable influence when you say their name in during a presentation or have them on your reference slide or page. But lately some of their predictions don’t make a lot of sense to me. Let’s take the prediction that this is the last Windows, “…and create a modular operating system that allows for individual components to be updated.” Do you mean Vienna? Even Vista could be classified as modular. This has already been in the press for quite a while, so I don’t think that really counts.
And as far as bloggers, I don’t really see that as a real prediction either. I think most bloggers come and go in less than 12 months, it may not seem like it but blogging is actually a lot of work! It is not something that takes just five minutes a day and I think most get into it with the wrong intention. They want to make money at it or get others to agree with their opinions. Neither of which is easy on the web.
Well I have to go take my car in to get a nail removed from the tire before we go to church and this post has taken me about 30 minutes so I will leave you with the article and about this time next year, assuming I am still blogging, we will see if their blogging “prediction” comes true, and in three years, if Vienna is as they “predicted.”
Regards and Happy Holidays!
Anthony Clendenen
Novelty value will wear off, says analyst
Tom Sanders in California,
vnunet.com 15 Dec 2006
Blogging will peak in 2007,
Gartner predicts, levelling off when the number of writers who maintain a personal website reaches 100 million.
Gartner analysts expect that the novelty value of the medium will wear off as most people who are interested in the phenomenon have checked it out, and new bloggers will offset the number of writers who abandon their creation out of boredom.
The firm estimates that there are more than 200 million former bloggers who have ceased posting to their online diaries.
Gartner made the assertion as part of its top 10 predictions for 2007. The firm also believes that Windows Vista will be Microsoft's last major update of its Windows operating system.
The software vendor is expected to borrow a page from the book of open source projects and create a modular operating system that allows for individual components to be updated.
Gartner's visionaries, however, refused to entertain pessimistic views about Microsoft's future fuelled by the rise online application providers such as Google and Salesforce.com.
07:48 - Dec 17, 2006
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